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Koriat, A., Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. (1980). Reasons for Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6(2), 107-118.(PDF)

This study compared the confidence of participants in their answers to two-choice trivia questions. One group were asked to answer questions as normal and provide a probability that their answer was correct. The other was asked to answer the question, then provide reasons for and against each choice, then provide a probability that their answer was correct.

The experimenters found that the group that had to provide reasons were closer to correct in their assessments of their answers.

Baranski and Petrusic 1994, Baranski and Petrusic 1995

Adams, J.K., & Adams, P.A. Realism of confidence judgments. Psychological Review, 1961, 68, 33-45.

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Collins, A., Warnock, E.H., Aiello, N., & Miller, M.C. Reasoning from incomplete knowledge. In D.G. Bobrow & A. Collins (Eds.), Representation and understanding. New York: Academic Press, 1975.

Fischhoff, B. Perceived informativeness of facts. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1977, 3, 349-358.

Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of exterme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1977, 3, 522-564.

Gruneberg, M.M., & Monks, J. "Feeling of knowing" and cued recall. Acta Psycholgica, 1974, 38, 257-265.

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Johnson-Laird, P.N., & Wason, P.C. A theoretical analysis of insight into a reasoning task. In P.N. Johnson-Laird & P.C. Wason (Eds.), Thinking. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1977.

Koriat, A., & Lieblich, I. A study of memory pointers. Acta Psychologica, 1977, 41, 151-164.

Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgements. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1977, 3, 552-564.

Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. Training for calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, in press.

Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., & Phillips, L.D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art. In H. Jungermann & G. deZeeuw (Eds.), Decision making and change in human affairs. Amsterdam: D. Reidel, 1977.

Mosteller, F., & Tukey, J.W. Data analysis including statistics. In G. Lindzey & E. Aronson (Eds.), The handbook of social psychology. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1968.

Murdock, B.B. The criterion problem in short-term memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1966, 72, 317-324.

Murphy, A.H. A new vector partition of the probability score. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1973, 12, 595-600.

Phillips, L.D. Bayesian statistics for social scientists. London: Nelson, 1973.

Slovic, P. & Fischhoff, B. On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1977, 3, 544-551.

Smedslund, J. The concept of correlation in adults. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1963, 4, 165-173.

Tulving, E., & Thomson, D.M. Retrieval processes in recognition memory: Effects of associative context. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1971, 87, 116-124.

Baranski and Petrusic 1994
People are often overconfident in evaluating the correctness of their knowledge. The present studies investigated the possibility that assessment of confidence is biased by attempts to justify one’s chosen answer. These attempts include selectively focusing on evidence supporting the chosen answer and disregarding evidence contradicting it. Experiment 1 presented subjects with two-alternative questions and required them to list reasons for and against each of the alternatives prior to choosing an answer and then to list (a) one reason supporting that choice, (b) one reason contradicting it, or (c) one reason supporting and one reason contradicting. Only the listing of contradicting reasons improved the appropriateness of confidence. Correlational analyses of the data of Experiment 1 strongly suggested that the confidence depends on the amount and strength of the evidence supporting the answer chosen.
Koriat, Lichtenstein, & Fischhoff 1980; www.triv.net (for questions)
{Data Instructions}

05-Mar-2002

Brian MacWhinney